| Major drivers of coastal change have been summarised by Turner (2004), in an aggregate DP-SIR analysis for all European seas, setting a time horizon at 2050 (Table 4). These drivers act together in often complex synergy to lead to environmental state changes with ultimate consequences for coastal habitats. We broke down our analysis into three parts: driving pressures, environmental state changes and expected consequences for habitat change (Table 4).
Climate change, including the component due to human society, lists as a major driver that is foreseen to have major effects in the coastal zone (see also Nicholls & Klein, 2004). Most drivers, however, are related to human population growth and economic expansion. Industrialisation, naval traffic intensity, fisheries, coastal aquaculture and port development, as well as offshore mining for gas and oil all have increased greatly in the past decades, and probably will continue to do so. Together with increased tourism this has lead to an increased urbanisation of the coastal zone. Increased development of the coastal zone is accompanied by reclamation-increased armouring of coastal defences, and the narrowing of the zone where natural coastal processes may take place (coastal squeeze). Climate change is foreseen to have the most severe impacts in the Arctic and the Caspian and Black Sea. In the arctic, the large scale disappearance of sea ice will lead to wholesale loss of habitat for arctic mammals and the foodwebs they depend on (biodiversity loss). The loss of coastal ice will also enhance coastal erosion at these higher latitudes. In the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, freshwater influxes are foreseen to drop greatly. Tourism is expected to notably increase along Mediterranean and Baltic coasts. Fisheries and aquaculture will continue to have substantial impacts on coastal waters, despite considerable regulatory effort as regards the former. Aquaculture will probably expand into most European seas. It’s impacts have been well studied, though outside ELOISE (e.g. LIFE QUALITY, cf Read & Fernandes, 2003). Agriculture is expected to intensify in the new member states of the EC and thus lead to increased nutrient loads into recipient seas (Baltic, Black Sea). Future habitat losses were foreseen to be the most detrimental in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.
Sea level rise is foreseen to lead to ‘removal’ or inland migration of sea cliffs, shingle beaches, sandy shores and salt marsh habitats due to enhanced erosion. These, therefore, will give way for aquatic habitats when natural re-alignment of the coast is impossible. Often, coastal squeeze will thus remove natural soft coasts until the armoured sea defence.
Coastal Squeeze
Refers to the forcing of intertidal habitats between the rising sea and fixed hard defences that results in their overall area being reduced.
See Glossary for complete list of all terms. |
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