| Although the original science plan for ELOISE highlighted global change and human impacts, climate change was not explicitly included as a topic for analysis. However, much information was generated in ELOISE which makes a valuable contribution to climate change science. This report critically evaluates the suite of projects within the ELOISE cluster from the perspective of their importance for climate change science and their ability to add to the available knowledge, rather than data, in this field. The discussion focuses on four main topics and under each topic it considers the projects which fall into that category and highlights those of greatest relevance
1. Building blocks and tools for climate change management
- A variety of projects have focused on developing the tools required to better understand the gaseous exchange between the oceans and coastal ecosystems.
- Databases have been developed for water quality studies, which can significantly influence the gaseous emissions from a water body, and sedimentary processes.
- Other projects modelled the key biogeochemical processes in the water and sediments of coastal environments considering the role played by a range of constituents including carbon and nitrogen, in their various forms, as well as trace substances.
2. Manifestations of climate change
- Several projects focused on the impacts of climate change on vulnerable coastal environments and ecosystems (including pelagic fisheries).
- Other projects focused on the pressures and stresses resulting from climate change
3. Human Impacts
- Climate change is both a causal factor and a consequence of many of the processes being studied and, of course, it is human induced.
- Several projects in this category focus socio-political considerations as well as environmental aspects, bringing together socio-economic tools with natural science models.
- Some projects in this category focus on the physical implications of human activities and climate change and the implications of the actions which may be taken and also on appraising the impact of human activities on water chemistry and ecosystems.
- The projects have provided deeper knowledge of human impacts which lead to further questions about the adaptation or mitigative action which could be taken by society.
4. Indirect links to climate change
- Some projects look at the current status of the environment with regard to, for example, a particular pollutant, an ecosystem or eutrophication and in these projects climate and its change will be one of the key parameters.
- In many cases there are gaps in the available knowledge of the fundamental processes relevant to that issue or problem and large uncertainties. The impacts of climate change add to this uncertainty.
The report concludes that there have been major advances in out understanding of the coastal zone over the last decade in particular in the understanding of carbon and nutrient cycling through the coastal environment (including water, land, biosphere and atmosphere). ELOISE should be seen as a vehicle for scientists to contribute to the wider debates which are required.
As a result of ELOISE we have the best-ever present state analysis of the coastal zone, including natural and human systems, and integrated management tools with which to consider future actions. Advanced process models and scenario building have been developed and, in the area of climate change, ELOISE has helped to transform data into features amenable to modelling. A critical path or network of understanding encompassing climate modellers, local managers, policy makers and others is proposed to facilitate the dissemination and consolidation of the scientific outputs. |
