The ‘raw materials’ of climate change science are data on temperature, precipitation and humidity, wind and air pressure, and solar irradiance. These weather parameters become climate change data when they are combined to show temporal and spatial patterns. Today’s climate has been set in the perspective of long term climate records pieced together in palaeoclimatological studies, which rely on proxy measures for the fundamental data. This study of climate and climatic change in the period before instrumental measurements or historical records of observations were available draws on data from ice cores, tree rings, and the analysis of sediments.

Beyond this empirical analysis of past trends, the greater emphasis in recent years has been on understanding the underlying systems that control and drive climate. General circulation models (like those of National Centre for Atomspheric Research (NCAR) in the USA, and the UK’s Hadley Centre model) are like weather prediction models in that they parameterise these driving forces (the patterns of atmospheric and oceanographic motion), but they do so on a global scale (Hadley Centre, 1999). This aspect of climate change science relies on an understanding of radiative processes (i.e., the transfer of radiation by absorption, reflection, etc.); dynamic processes relating to the transfer of energy among components of the Earth system (e.g., by diffusion, advection or convection); and what can broadly be classed as surface processes. This latter category, in which land-ocean interactions are very important, along with the effects of albedo and surface-atmosphere exchanges, is the area of most potential overlap of climate change science with the science themes of ELOISE projects. It is possible that some of the ‘raw materials’ data generated during the ELOISE programme may also be of wider use, if appropriately catalogued and managed. For instance, local and regional downscaling of general circulation models and other climate change modelling tools is greatly facilitated by access to and comparison with such smaller scale data sources. In general, however, the most significant contribution of the programme as a whole to the science of climate change and (in today’s favoured jargon) of the Earth system is likely to be in the area of surface processes.

The contribution of BIOGEST is its focus on the coupling of estuaries and the atmosphere, and on several climate-active biogases. Estuaries, as areas rich in decaying organic matter, produce large quantities of carbon dioxide, their anoxic sediments are a source of methane, and their generally high nutrient loading enhances the production and release of N₂O, another greenhouse gas. On the other hand, primary productivity consumes carbon dioxide, and eutrophic (nutrient-enriched) conditions favour the production of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and carbonyl sulphide, which increase cloud albedo. The interplay among these climate-active species, and the regional contribution to the global budget of biogases (see in particular Frankignoulle and Borges, 2001; Frankignoulle et al, 1998), are both vital contributions to the basic understanding of the climate system.

ESCAPE outputs contribute greatly to the understanding of the marine sulphur and carbon cycles and more specifically, their linked interactions in coastal ecosystems. Both sulphur and carbon cycles are highly relevant to climate change studies, with carbon dioxide being the main contributor to the greenhouse effect (global warming), while sulphur compounds are an important source of cloud condensation nuclei, and are thus involved in regulating cloud albedo (global cooling). The project focused on a single plankton genus, Phaeocystis, which can dominate entire ecosystems during its blooms. Its species generate the climate active compound dimethyl sulphide (DMS), and its blooms may act as sinks for atmospheric CO₂. One of the ESCAPE outputs is a conceptual model to allow an estimation of the impact of Phaeocystis-dominated ecosystems on global climate.

The INCA project established hydrological and water quality databases for a range of key European ecosystems, and developed a process-based dynamic model for selected river catchments across Europe . It looked at the fluxes and cycling of nitrogen on many timescales, linking plants, soil and stream processes. This integrated land/biosphere/atmosphere approach allows the impacts of climatic change, along with other processes, to be assessed. It adds to the understanding of the behaviour of N₂O in the coastal zone, and it also addresses critical upscaling problems, from site to catchment scale. Limbrick et al. (2000) have applied the model to the UK ’s River Kennet catchment using the widely accepted Hadley Centre climate change scenarios, and were able to satisfactorily draw conclusions about future water resource changes and the implications for catchment ecology. Even a broad indication of changes in the hydrological regime of rivers under potential climate changes are useful to water resource planners. From a planning perspective, the chalk aquifer of the Kennet catchment is less robust to climate change than other aquifers: quick responses to changes provide less time for adaptation strategies to take effect.